60% - 40% strategy

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60% - 40% strategy

Objavlja  mmaestro on Ned Maj 27, 2012 7:16 pm

Tole strategijo sem zasledil nekje na netu pa sem se odločil, da jo delim z vami...
Tudi sam se bom posvetil malo tradanju, tako da sem malo raziskoval in prišel do te strategija, ki se mi zdi kar zanimiva....

Če bo kdo kaj testiral naj pove kakšni so kaj rezultati, sam bom se bolj posvetil testiranju čez kakšen mesec ko bodo obveznosti katere imam sedaj mimo....


In the next posts I will explain a good strategy for Betfair users. For this strategy we will play at Betfair only in the "Under/Over 2.5 goals market" and also in "Match Odds" market. We will start with the idea that we have 10$. We will divide this amount of money in two parts: first part will have 60% from total amount of money, which means for us 6$ and the second part will have 40% from total amount which means for our example 4$. If you decide to play this strategy you can start any amount of money you want all you have to do is to respect the percent: 60% & 40%

Firstly, we must enter into the "match odds" market. After that we will place a lay bet on X( draw). Our liability must be no more than 60% from total amount of money, which means for us 6$. another important thing is the Lay odd. The odd that we will Lay must be lower than 3.7-3.75. After we placed the bet it is time to go to the next step of the strategy. We will enter in the "Under/Over 2.5 goals" market and we will place a back bet on Under2.5 goals. In the backer's stake we will type 40% from total amount of money which means for us no more than 4$.

Very important thing to know: the odd for Under 2.5 goals must be 1.90 or higher. Another important thing that you have to know is that all these bets must be placed before the match starts. After placing the bets all we have to do is to wait the start of the game. The first ten minutes of the game are probably the most important. If a goal is scored in the first ten minutes we will lose 10% or maybe 15% from our total amount of money, in our case we talk about one dollar or one dollar and half. But first we will simulate how the strategy works if a goal is scored in the first ten minutes.

After the goal is scored in the first ten minutes we will go in the match odds market. At the beginning we have placed a Lay bet on draw at 3.7 (for example). Now after the goal the odds raise up to 4.1-4.3. Now, we will place a back bet on draw(X) and overall in this market we will exit in a profit. Small but profit. After that we will enter in the Under/Over 2.5 goals market. Here we have placed a 40% of total amount of money bet before the start of the game at the odds around 1.95. After the goal the odds for under 2.5 goals have raised up to 2.3-2.4

Now, we will place a lay bet on the under/over 2.5 goals market. Because of odds movement we will have here a loss. After counting the loss from Under/Over 2.5 goals market and the profit from the match odds market, overall will have a 10%-15% lost from our amount of money. This is the worst situation that can happen in this strategy. But if we a have just a little bit luck and we pass over the first ten minutes of the game and no goal is scored we can exit overall in profit depending in the time of first goal will be. More later more better for our strategy.

Most of times after this period we will be on profit no matter what will hapen later. Now let's figure that no goals is scored until the 30th minute and we decide to exit from this match. We will enter in the match odds market and there we will trade with just a little loss. Probably the odds for draw(X) are now at 3.1-3.3 value. After trading on this market we will go at Under/over 2.5 goals market and here we will trade with nice profit. Here we have a 1.95 bet and now after 30 minutes the odds are probably at 1.6-1.7 value so the profit is guaranteed.

After we exit from both markets we will count the loss from the match odds market and the profit from under/over 2.5 goals market. We will see that we have a 10%-15% profit from total amount of money. In this strategy it is important to choose at least 60% matches where no goal is scored in the first ten minutes. I think that you don't need so big luck to hit 7 matches with no goal in the first ten minutes, from totally 10. You can trade anytime depending on how much you want to risk. You can exit with profit after 20 minutes or maybe 25 minutes

Is important to know that you must finish your trading until the end of first half. After my experience this strategy works fine in championships like: Switzerland championship; Deutschland Championship, Netherland championship( also in the second league), Spanish championship, Brasilian championship and sometimes in the english championship. After now, for me the strategy worked well if I think that I have hit only two or three matches with a goal scored in the first ten minutes from totally ten. My advice is to try it on a paper and if you like it I wish you good luck!
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mmaestro

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Re: 60% - 40% strategy

Objavlja  ednpac on Pon Maj 28, 2012 6:01 am

Zanimiva strategija, ampak dvomim da lahko tule odneseš 10-15% profita. Izpostavil bi še eno slabo stran o kateri ni bilo nič napisanega. Kaj če prvi zadane nefavorit ! V tem primeru kvota za draw ne bo narasla, ampak lahko tudi pade in se bomo težko rešili s tega marketa. Tudi over 2.5 bi v tem primeru šla kvota po gobe.

Drugi primer, ki se tudi lahko naredi je, da nas že zelo zgodaj presenetita celo dva gola in če imamo smola bo rezultat 1:1 - kaj pa zdaj. Na market under 2.5 lahko pozabimo in tule je potem res težko reševat.
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ednpac

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Re: 60% - 40% strategy

Objavlja  mmaestro on Pon Maj 28, 2012 8:29 am

Za kvoto lay 3,75 sta oba precej izenačena nasprotnika, tako da bi se vseeno moglo poznati na kvoti...
Je pa tako, da je potrebno biti malo selektiven pri odbiranju parov in ne odigrati vsake tekme...

Sicer pa je tu govora, da se pokrije izgubo po prvem golu če pade prehitro. Redko kdaj padeta dva gola tako hitro da market ni dosegljiv med tem časom....
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mmaestro

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Re: 60% - 40% strategy

Objavlja  Orlaya on Pon Jun 04, 2012 5:45 pm

Tule je še nekaj o omenjeni strategiji:

http://www.betting365online.com/soccer-trading/

Glede na moje izkušnje bolj realen opis kar se tiče profita (ali morebitne izgube).
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Orlaya

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Re: 60% - 40% strategy

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